Three years have passed since the peak of the market frenzy in the spring of 2022. That has been enough time to distinguish temporary hype from sustainable trends. Looking back, we see not a “burst bubble,” but a complex and necessary process of industry maturation. The luxury watch market went through a phase of deep correction and emerged with a new, more mature structure.
2022–2024: The Great Revaluation
The period when prices were driven more by emotion than by fundamentals ended with an inevitable correction. Models whose value had surged purely on the wave of speculative demand returned to realistic levels. However, the key lesson of those years lies elsewhere: true icons demonstrated remarkable resilience.
The unshakable core: Models such as the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711 or the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Jumbo, even after a significant retreat from their 2022 peaks, retained values multiple times higher than their last official retail price. This confirmed their status not as mere commodities, but as cultural and tangible assets.
A new pricing reality: A sustainable gap has formed between the world of authorized dealers with their waiting lists and the secondary market offering immediate availability at a premium. That premium is no longer abstract — it has become a measurable indicator of a specific model’s desirability and liquidity.
2025–2026: The Era of Selectivity and Value
The current market, January 2026, is characterized by demand rationalization.
The end of “easy money”: Watches have ceased to be instruments of quick speculation. Investors have given way to collectors and connoisseurs, for whom history, craftsmanship, and a personal connection to the movement are paramount.
The role of external factors: Macroeconomic drivers have come to the forefront. The dynamics of precious metal prices, currency exchange rates, and overall geopolitical instability have become key variables influencing the pricing of both new and vintage models. Their impact is a subject for separate, in-depth analysis.
The triumph of expertise: In an environment where broad growth has been replaced by selectivity, those with deep knowledge prevail.
Conclusion: A New Paradigm for the Collector
The market of 2026 is an environment for mature decisions. It is no longer about “what to buy in order to sell at a higher price,” but about “what to buy in order to appreciate for years.” It is a time to search for overlooked gems, to study details carefully, and to partner with experts who can distinguish momentary noise from lasting value. The correction has cleared the field, and now the very masterpieces for which it all began stand out clearly.
