Forecast for the Watch Market in 2026 (Part 1)

Every year in any sphere of activity is a milestone — a moment to sum up results and plan for the future, because it is essential to understand which harbor your business ship is sailing toward and what resources you can rely on. The new logic of processes is shaped not by visible tools and “hype” trends, but by deep structural shifts amid the rapid development of new technologies and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. All of this, together with the growing importance of trust in brands and their CEOs, has become the foundation of the new economy. Let us examine the trends that remained in the outgoing year of 2025 and attempt to anticipate what awaits us in 2026 — a complex and at times unpredictable year.

2025 Results: Stability in Europe as the Foundation of Sustainable Development in the Watch Industry

The past year brought a certain rethinking of the key watch trends: from bold design decisions to unusual conceptual accents, the revival of retro style elements, from uncertainty in the markets of Asia and the United States to almost religious reverence for masterpieces of watchmaking in Europe. And it is not only about risk diversification — Prague, Vienna, Zurich, and Geneva remain points of attraction for buyers who will continue to invest in luxury watches as a profitable asset and a symbol of high status and prestige.

The year 2025 was challenging for the entire world due to an unpredictable political landscape, fluctuating demand, and unstable trade relations, all of which inevitably affected the development dynamics of every sector, including the watch industry.

Key trends of the past year in this market:

• a 3.6% decline in Swiss watch exports and reduced retail activity due to the increase of U.S. import duties on products from well-known Swiss brands to 39%;

• demand fluctuations despite ongoing technological advancement, as well as marketing and staffing changes within leading Swiss brands;

• the impact of attempts to achieve a balance between accessibility and rarity on the pricing policies of major luxury watch manufacturers.

At the same time, in a rapidly changing world, Europe remains a zone of relative stability and trust, and the Prague-based multi-brand watch boutique Chrono 10:10 is part of the European ecosystem. Our priority is not hype and short-term success, but a measured approach to which all markets — including the watch market — are gradually returning. Recall the speculative “bubble” of the 2022/23 season in the secondary luxury accessories market. At that time, we stayed afloat thanks to stable demand in the European market, strict compliance with legal standards, and the unwavering trust of connoisseurs in the Geneva Seal of quality.

In the watch business, 2025 was marked by the following tendencies:

1. A rethinking of canonical case proportions. After a prolonged fascination with models featuring large diameters of 41–45 mm, manufacturers began returning to more compact sizes — 34–37 mm.
2. Color diversity. Purple, lavender, green, turquoise, and other polychromatic cases emerged, along with dials made of stone and minerals with unique structures, such as meteorite. Such vibrancy is not merely a matter of aesthetics; it reflects an expanded perception of luxury watches as an expression of personal style, mood, and character.
3. A boom in technical engineering aimed at new functionality, where innovative materials (titanium, ceramic, and others) combine lightness, distinctive visual appeal, and hypoallergenic properties.
4. Stylistic evolution, where pluralism and jewelry-inspired aesthetics have taken the lead in design, countering imitative uniformity, while genuine technological breakthroughs have complemented thoughtful proportionality.

In short, the modern market at the seasonal intersection of 2025/26 reflects a balance between innovation, authenticity, an individual approach, and profound changes in the paradigm of demand for luxury watches and in the perception of watch mechanics as an important component of contemporary culture. Equally important: connoisseurs of watch accessories from any region of the world now understand that purchasing watches in Europe means acquiring them transparently, reliably, and securely.

2026: Sustainability as a Strategic Factor

According to reports and forecasts by watch market experts, 2026 promises to become a year of elegant revolutions in the world of luxury watch brands. All aspects will be involved: from refined design and innovation in materials and movements to new ways of wearing watches, enhanced everyday comfort, and improved ergonomics of models that will combine vintage elegance with environmental responsibility.

Trends of the European watch market in 2026:

1. A growing tendency among successful individuals to wear watches as a status symbol, with particular demand for rare, vintage, and limited-edition models.
2. Increased investment in research and development of innovative products in the luxury segment, extending to:

• the emergence of atomic Rolex watches or desktop Rolex Submariner models — the industry knows how to “smile” even in difficult times;
• changes to COSC movement standards, bringing them closer to real-life conditions;
• optimization of certification for custom masterpieces by Geneva watchmakers in accordance with the requirements of the Geneva Seal and COSC.

3. The organization of elegance competitions among watches by Vacheron Constantin in partnership with the auction house Phillips, with criteria including history, condition, and design.

4. Participation in significant socially oriented projects. For example, the brand IWC has become the official timekeeper of Vast, a company planning to launch two commercial space stations in the coming years, where watchmakers will work on improving their accessories for use in zero-gravity conditions.

5. The segmentation of the European watch industry by type, end users, channels, and country of distribution will continue in order to achieve an average annual growth rate of 5.31% by 2030. Indirectly, the European market has also been supported by the reduction of U.S. duties from 39% to 15%.

The main platforms where the successes of watch companies are recorded — with leaders remaining Rolex SA, Citizen Watch Ltd, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA, The Swatch Group Ltd, and Fossil Group Inc. — will include:

• Watches & Wonders Geneva 2026 as the key event of the year in the watch industry;
• Dubai Watch Week, whose influence is growing, although Europe retains its status as the “home” of high watchmaking culture;
• the auction houses Sotheby’s and Phillips, where headline-making sales are recorded.

The experts of the Chrono 10:10 boutique closely monitor market trends, yet our foundation is European values, as we are part of the Old World family that is returning to sustainable development, to the origins of clarity, to a balance between creativity and caution, true heritage and genuine innovation. We build trust with partners and clients for years, not on hype, shock releases, or speculation. We value the history of each model and work toward restoring the secondary market, driven by:

• minimizing excess supply;

• official resale programs, for example, by Rolex;

• investment in watches as a “safe haven” asset amid macroeconomic turbulence.

The primary growth of secondary sales is concentrated mainly around brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet. The views and sentiments of luxury watch connoisseurs are evolving — they are becoming a global trend. Luxury models are no longer purchased merely because they are heavily promoted in the media or because many celebrities have adorned their wrists with them. True collectors have returned to what attracts them to particular brands — movements, complications, luxury, vintage character, history, and heritage.